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CommentariesStudiesFvS Wealth Price Index for GermanyFvS Wealth Price Series for the Euro AreaFvS Business Cycle IndicatorFvS Real Economy TrackerFvS Inflation TrackerThe Euro MeltdownPressPeer reviewed publications
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12.06.2015 - Studies

The Fed between doves and hawks

by Agnieszka Gehringer

After several years of a close-to-zero federal funds rate in the US, the Fed has prepared markets for higher interest rates.

These efforts were explained with positive expectations for output, inflation and the labor market in 2015-2016. The early optimism was dampened by the harsh reality of weak economic data in the first quarter of 2015. However, May data suggest the weakness may have been temporary.

Download study as PDF (Reading time 12 min)

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18.07.2018 - Macroeconomics

US monetary policy in the trade war

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Trade wars have the potential to create additional inflationary pressures before economic activity weakens. US monetary policy could be more restrictive at first, but then more expansionary again.

13.04.2018 - Macroeconomics

US dollar weakness under the microscope

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Why is the US dollar so weak? After all, a similar policy-mix of a tax reform and monetary tightening by the Fed at the beginning of the 1980s led to a 40-percent appreciation of the US currency.

16.10.2017 - Macroeconomics

The Fed in the changing room

by Agnieszka Gehringer

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27.06.2017 - Macroeconomics

What follows from the Fed’s balance sheet normalization?

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Fed’s balance sheet normalization could shrink the balance sheet by one third, or USD 1.3 trillion by mid-2020. Long-term Treasury yields are likely to rise by around 34–63 basis points as a result.