Italy at a crossroads

A referendum on the amendment of the Constitution is held in Italy on 4 December. The constitutional reform could improve the functioning of the political and administrative apparatus and take a step towards modernising the paralysed economic system. However, the potential for positive effects to be felt before the new elections in spring 2018 is very limited.

Should the "no" campaign win, this would at best mean maintaining the inefficient status quo. Alternatively, policy blockades and/or a policy shift towards a parliamentary majority led by the reform-shy and Euro-unfriendly Movimento Cinque Stelle are conceivable.

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