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15.01.2018 - Studies

Delusive security in the Italian banking sector

by Agnieszka Gehringer

The latest Financial Stability Report by the Bank of Italy concludes that “the risks are diminishing in the Italian banking sector”. This could give a false sense of security.

The decline in non-performing loans (NPLs) reflects one-off write-downs rather than a sustained improvement in credit quality. Due to the cyclicality in credit risk modelling, banks' provisions for bad loans have recently fallen as a result of the improved economic situation. This is likely to create problems in the future.

Download study as PDF (reading time ca. 14 min)

 

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28.02.2018 - Macroeconomics

Protectionism returns to US policy agenda

by Agnieszka Gehringer

US protectionism is back. Selective trade barriers would hurt employment in the affected industries, but there would be no damage at the macro level and on the stock markets.