How stories can spread and influence prices

Narratives are short stories that convey values and emotions. They can spread like an epidemic and have an influence on pricing in the capital markets. In this study, we show that the contagious power of the narrative surrounding bitcoin helped to drive the bitcoin price to its all-time high.

Behavioural economics teaches us that economic entities do not form their expectations in accordance with the rational expectations theory, i.e. by incorporating all available information and by fully understanding the economic context. Rather, they are guided by “gut feelings”. These include the selective and subjective perception of facts, heuristic analysis and herd mentality. The assumption of rational expectations leads to the assertion of the existence of efficient markets. But what is the implication of market participants using their gut feelings to make financial decisions? Robert Shiller proposed a remarkable answer: markets can be influenced by stories (narratives). In this paper, we use the example of bitcoin to examine whether market developments can be explained by behavioural economics and narrative economics.

Please note: this study is only available in German.

Download study as PDF

Legal notice

The information contained and opinions expressed in this document reflect the views of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without prior notice. Forward-looking statements reflect the judgement and future expectations of the author. The opinions and expectations found in this document may differ from estimations found in other documents of Flossbach von Storch SE. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. This document does not constitute an offer to sell, purchase or subscribe to securities or other assets. The information and estimates contained herein do not constitute investment advice or any other form of recommendation. All information has been compiled with care. However, no guarantee is given as to the accuracy and completeness of information and no liability is accepted. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All authorial rights and other rights, titles and claims (including copyrights, brands, patents, intellectual property rights and other rights) to, for and from all the information in this publication are subject, without restriction, to the applicable provisions and property rights of the registered owners. You do not acquire any rights to the contents. Copyright for contents created and published by Flossbach von Storch SE remains solely with Flossbach von Storch SE. Such content may not be reproduced or used in full or in part without the written approval of Flossbach von Storch SE.

Reprinting or making the content publicly available – in particular by including it in third-party websites – together with reproduction on data storage devices of any kind requires the prior written consent of Flossbach von Storch SE.

© 2024 Flossbach von Storch. All rights reserved.